Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
78 0x78ca…b3f3 sports 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$426 (+20%) realized +$426 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%89W / 62L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$100
14 days+$253
30 days+$405
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$420
other 9% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +13.0% +2.2% 58% 58% +3.8%
≤30d 151 +11.2% +0.6% 59% 59% +8.0%
≤90d 151 +11.2% +0.6% 59% 59% +8.0%
all 151 +11.2% +0.6% 59% 59% +8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 59% +8.0%
10% -9.1% 59% -2.3%
15% -17.8% 58% -11.7%
20% -25.9% 50% -20.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$426
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses89 / 62
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)151 / 151
History coverage27d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 151 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$7 +65%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$7 +66%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $10 +$12 +119%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 +$46 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$37 +73%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 +$13 +128%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$24 +237%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$17 +85%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $71 −$70 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$9 +89%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $15 +$6 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 13 $5 +$3 +53%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +85%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$6 +60%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$8 +75%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $10 +$4 +38%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $10 +$7 +70%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$6 -54%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $10 −$3 -29%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$17 +165%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$9 +93%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$7 +44%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $11 +$21 +191%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 94¢ $17 2h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 91¢ $17 2h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 54¢ $10 3h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $10 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $10 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 15h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 61¢ $10 15h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 15h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $10 15h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 16h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $88 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $23 28h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 38h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 52¢ $10 38h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 100¢ $34 38h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $5 41h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $10 45h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $10 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 46h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $20 2d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 39¢ $31 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $71 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $15 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 57¢ $51 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 64¢ $10 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 50¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 267 history records