Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:19:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x78c4…d99e other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$757 (-20%) realized −$792 · open +$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate60%18W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$735now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$112
7 days+$180
14 days−$730
30 days−$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$507
crypto 29% −$147
finance 7% −$143
politics 5% +$14
sports 3% +$21
world 0% −$5
tech 0% +$8
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +24.9% +13.0% 100% 60% +7.9%
≤30d 18 -17.9% -25.7% 61% 39% -32.6%
≤90d 23 -30.3% -36.9% 52% 35% -33.2%
all 30 -17.8% -25.6% 60% 43% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 43% -32.6%
10% -32.7% 30% -39.1%
15% -39.2% 20% -45.0%
20% -45.2% 13% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$108 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$735
Realized−$792
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses18 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 32
History coverage136d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fable 5 by June 30? No 73¢ 88¢ $200 $241 +$41 (+20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $201 +$49 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $351 +$34 +10%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 22 $184 +$14 +8%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 17 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$52 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$103 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $242 +$23 +9%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Nebius Group be acquired before 2027? Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Will gas hit (High) $4.25 by March 31? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 31 $30 +$7 +22%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,400 (LOW) in March 2026? Mar 27 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 23 $5 +$8 +155%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 23 $5 +$2 +35%
Will Nebius say "Nvidia" during earnings call? Mar 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Nebius say "Meta" during earnings call? Feb 20 $30 +$2 +8%
Will Nebius say "Cash" during earnings call? Feb 20 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Feb 12 $1 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $508 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 80¢ $201 43h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 47h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $19 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 99¢ $21 6d
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY No 73¢ $202 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $89 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $351 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $201 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 11d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $147 13d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 14d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 16d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 16d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 77¢ $101 18d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY No 8¢ $183 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $735.20 · official $736.58 (match) · 92 history records