Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:12:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78c3…9924 other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$90 (-0%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%11W / 238L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$12
14 days−$20
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$39
sports 28% −$30
politics 7% −$7
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$9
economics 5% −$7
world 4% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.3% -9.8% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses11 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage132d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $436 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $105 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $329 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $162 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $100 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $104 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $286 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $237 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $769 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $276 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $273 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $109 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $135 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $120 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $278 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $377 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $176 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $123 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 04 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $116 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $255 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $148 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $242 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $154 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 31 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $626 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 53m
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 2h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $49 7h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $49 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 10h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 11h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $49 12h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $49 13h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 19h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $49 21h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 22h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 24h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 34h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 36h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $40 36h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 37h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $49 38h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 40h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 42h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 43h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 44h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $49 46h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $50 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1394 history records