Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78c2…22cf world 58 markets active 1h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized −$21 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$987now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$26
14 days+$32
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$33
sports 21% +$40
politics 17% −$2
other 6% +$6
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.9% -14.0% 44% 22% +2.7%
≤30d 26 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 19% -13.9%
≤90d 34 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 15% -14.1%
all 34 -4.1% -13.2% 47% 15% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 15% -14.1%
10% -21.5% 3% -22.3%
15% -29.1% 3% -29.8%
20% -36.1% 3% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$987
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)34 / 58
History coverage32d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 99¢ $446 $454 +$8 (+2%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $60 $57 −$2 (-4%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $53 $51 −$3 (-5%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 41¢ 74¢ $25 $46 +$21 (+83%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? No 84¢ 86¢ $37 $38 +$1 (+2%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in June? No 90¢ 94¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+7%)
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 89¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+11%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 73¢ 78¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 86¢ 74¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+5%)
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Yes 96¢ 98¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 94¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Yes 72¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+56%)
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Yes 37¢ 14¢ $4 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $50 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $32 +$43 +135%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.4% or more in May? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump speak to Nicolás Maduro in May? Jun 05 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 05 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in May? Jun 05 $25 $0 -1%
Will the US add between 100k and 150k jobs in May? Jun 05 $3 $0 +16%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $11 $0 +1%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 31? Jun 01 $4 $0 +2%
Will Prabowo Subianto cease to be President of Indonesia by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $42 +$5 +12%
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $53 −$53 -100%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? May 24 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $2 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $18 +$1 +6%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 14 $1 $0 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -6%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 14 $1 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 14 $7 −$1 -12%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 14 $2 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 14 $2 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $13 58m
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 66¢ $2 59m
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $1 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 1h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 3h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 3h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 7h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 10h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 87¢ $29 10h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $6 10h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 25h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 34h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 34h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 34h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 34h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 34h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 34h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $9 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $27 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? BUY No 99¢ $13 39h
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $12 40h
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 40h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 41h
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? SELL No 64¢ $1 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.66 · official $986.68 (match) · 217 history records