Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:46:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78c1…765a sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-49%) realized −$30 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 20% -23.9%
≤30d 5 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 20% -23.9%
≤90d 5 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 20% -23.9%
all 5 -0.8% -10.3% 20% 20% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 20% -23.9%
10% -18.8% 20% -31.2%
15% -26.7% 20% -37.9%
20% -33.9% 20% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$10 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$30
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage6d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$30 +296%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 11¢ $10 33m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 37¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 9¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 18¢ $10 21h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 13¢ $10 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 64¢ $7 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 64¢ $9 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 64¢ $3 23h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 32¢ $10 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 1¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 24¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.04 (match) · 12 history records