Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78c1…f05a crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$49 (+24%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 33% -22.7%
≤30d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 33% -22.7%
≤90d 9 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 33% -22.7%
all 9 -24.5% -31.7% 33% 33% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 33% -22.7%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 33% -30.1%
15% -44.2% 33% -36.9%
20% -49.7% 33% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$34 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$30 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$25 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records