Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:56:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78c0…ad29 world 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%27W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% $0
other 20% −$4
politics 17% −$1
sports 8% −$11
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 2% $0
weather 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 28 +0.0% -9.5% 39% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 73 -3.0% -12.2% 32% 0% -9.6%
all 90 -5.2% -14.2% 30% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 3% -9.9%
10% -22.4% 3% -18.5%
15% -29.9% 1% -26.4%
20% -36.8% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses27 / 63
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)90 / 90
History coverage540d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 90 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $42 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $30 +$1 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $55 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $39 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $92 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $66 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $90 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $66 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $64 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $4 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $49 +$3 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $60 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $14 −$3 -20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $31 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $31 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Amanda Anisimova be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? May 18 $34 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $26 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $89 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $9 $0 +1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +7%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $55 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $12 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $34 30m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $9 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $22 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $21 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $29 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $15 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $26 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $30 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $16 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 307 history records