Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78bf…944b crypto 153 markets active 6d ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1822 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$578 (-11%) realized −$578 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -76% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate11%67W / 566L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day1822.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1822 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-78.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 536 -89.9% -90.9% 3% 1% -47.4%
≤30d 633 -75.7% -78.0% 11% 4% -32.6%
≤90d 633 -75.7% -78.0% 11% 4% -32.6%
all 633 -75.7% -78.0% 11% 4% -32.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1822.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -78.0% 4% -32.6%
10% ← realistic here -80.1% 2% -39.1%
15% -82.1% 1% -44.9%
20% -83.8% 1% -50.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -76% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$578
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses67 / 566
Open positions0
Markets (closed)633 / 153
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day1822.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 633 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records