Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:32:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78bc…2585 other 382 markets active 1d ago coverage 231d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 231d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,178 (+1%) realized +$4,644 · open −$466
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate44%203W / 263L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$794per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$91est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 231d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$16,021
world 29% +$3,293
crypto 15% −$890
sports 9% +$3,108
politics 5% −$2,556
tech 1% +$244
finance 0% −$945
economics 0% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 -89.4% -90.4% 4% 2% -12.3%
≤30d 112 -77.1% -79.2% 12% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 223 -65.6% -68.9% 17% 13% -29.9%
all 466 -10.3% -18.8% 44% 32% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 32% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 27% -22.0%
15% -33.7% 22% -29.5%
20% -40.2% 17% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$673) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$302 vs −$287 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$723
Realized+$4,644
Unrealized−$466
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses203 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$91
Open positions3
Markets (closed)466 / 382
History coverage231d ⚠
Avg bet$794
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $778 $544 −$235 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $146 $171 +$24 (+17%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? Yes 21¢ 1¢ $264 $8 −$256 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aldrich Potgieter win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Tyrrell Hatton win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bud Cauley win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Keith Mitchell win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Corey Conners win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brandt Snedeker win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ricky Castillo win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Christiaan Bezuidenhout win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Andrew Putnam win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Taylor Pendrith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Marco Penge win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sam Stevens win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Daniel Berger win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Michael Thorbjornsen win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sahith Theegala win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Patrick Cantlay win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sungjae Im win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hideki Matsuyama win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will J.T. Poston win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ryo Hisatsune win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jake Knapp win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Austin Smotherman win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sepp Straka win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Harry Hall win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will John Parry win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will John Keefer win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Lucas Glover win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Robert MacIntyre win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bernd Wiesberger win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jordan Smith win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Patrick Rodgers win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Chris Gotterup win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Harris English win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Angel Ayora win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Brian Harman win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Stewart Cink win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Pierceson Coody win the 2026 PGA Championship? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $28 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $39 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $29 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $57 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 34h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $722.86 · official $722.86 (match) · 3500 history records