Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
78 0x78bc…5616 sports 968 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,934 (-2%) realized −$4,841 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate51%497W / 470L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$229per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$1,943est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 118d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$8,732
crypto 2% −$801
other 0% +$57
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 30% -15.3%
≤30d 248 -9.2% -17.8% 41% 32% -16.9%
≤90d 692 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 34% -15.6%
all 967 -7.8% -16.6% 51% 34% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 34% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 22% -21.3%
15% -31.9% 16% -28.9%
20% -38.5% 12% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$120 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$4,841
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses497 / 470
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$1,943
Open positions1
Markets (closed)967 / 968
History coverage118d
Avg bet$229
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 967 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ 10¢ $118 $25 −$93 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $61 +$59 +97%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $47 +$25 +54%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 +$27 +110%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $10 +$15 +152%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
ITF Dinard: Julie Myatovic vs Margaux Maquet Jun 17 $11 −$8 -71%
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti Jun 17 $5 +$6 +132%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet Jun 17 $6 −$1 -22%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $9 −$3 -32%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $9 $0 -2%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $17 −$6 -36%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$9 +87%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $3 +$2 +78%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $12 −$8 -67%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $11 +$1 +11%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $4 +$6 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +18%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $14 −$3 -20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $6 −$2 -40%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lin Zhu vs Sinja Kraus Jun 15 $18 −$8 -41%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Giorgia Pedone Jun 15 $26 +$1 +2%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $14 −$1 -10%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $12 −$1 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$3 +27%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $6 +$6 +99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $16 −$10 -66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $2 −$1 -35%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $14 $0 +1%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $163 −$161 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $81 −$7 -9%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $54 +$48 +89%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $73 −$25 -34%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -88%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$8 -68%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$25 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$1 -2%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 45¢ $119 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $120 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $61 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Miami Marlins 100¢ $72 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 64¢ $47 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $47 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $20 9h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Julia Grabher 95¢ $25 9h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 37¢ $10 10h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 9¢ $3 10h
ITF Dinard: Julie Myatovic vs Margaux Maquet SELL Julie Myatovic 3¢ $3 10h
ITF Dinard: Julie Myatovic vs Margaux Maquet BUY Julie Myatovic 10¢ $11 12h
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti SELL Galatea Ferro 22¢ $11 12h
ITF San Gregorio: Galatea Ferro vs Sofia Rocchetti BUY Galatea Ferro 9¢ $5 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 40¢ $5 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 14h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet SELL Carole Monnet 17¢ $5 14h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Carole Monnet BUY Carole Monnet 21¢ $6 14h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva SELL Anja Stankovic 15¢ $6 14h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 21¢ $9 15h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi SELL Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 59¢ $9 15h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi BUY Zimbabwe High Performance Xi 59¢ $9 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 15h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $16 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 17h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Pittsburgh Pirates 48¢ $5 17h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 26¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.82 · official $27.43 · 2902 history records