Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:53:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78bb…1a24 crypto 489 markets active 2h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$234 (-1%) realized −$234 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%327W / 162L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +9.2% -1.2% 75% 50% +5.8%
≤30d 8 +9.2% -1.2% 75% 50% +5.8%
≤90d 73 -57.3% -61.4% 15% 5% -59.2%
all 489 -0.5% -10.0% 67% 33% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 33% -10.5%
10% -18.6% 16% -19.1%
15% -26.5% 8% -26.9%
20% -33.7% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$234
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses327 / 162
Open positions0
Markets (closed)489 / 489
History coverage180d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 489 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 27 $6 +$5 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 27 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $20 +$8 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 08 $22 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Apr 08 $59 −$3 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 08 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 08 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 08 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $41 −$3 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 08 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 08 $81 −$12 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 08 $55 −$20 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 08 $62 −$30 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Apr 08 $30 −$28 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 08 $80 −$20 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 08 $204 −$49 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 08 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Apr 08 $53 −$6 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 08 $46 −$25 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 08 $82 −$43 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Apr 08 $106 −$28 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Apr 08 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Apr 08 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 08 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 08 $79 −$49 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 08 $79 −$71 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Apr 08 $80 −$50 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 08 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 08 $189 −$38 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Apr 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Apr 08 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Apr 08 $82 −$55 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 1PM ET Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Apr 08 $44 −$19 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Apr 08 $67 −$28 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 08 $96 −$50 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 08 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $11 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $30 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $13 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $22 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $13 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $13 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $20 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $21 80d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1934 history records