Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78bb…342e world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$2
other 20% +$1
politics 5% +$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 16 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 0% -9.8%
all 32 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)32 / 34
History coverage472d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 81¢ 86¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $13 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $79 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $26 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $28 −$1 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $11 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 19? May 21 $2 $0 +2%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 21 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 24 $2 $0 +13%
Will the PPC win 5 or more seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Minnesota Twins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by March 31? Mar 29 $13 $0 -3%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 25 $12 $0 +4%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the Eastern Conference? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Mar 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $14 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $26 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 18¢ $6 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $26 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $26 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $17 11d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $12 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 89¢ $17 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.46 · official $26.01 (match) · 96 history records