Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:12:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78b8…27ac other 161 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$548 (-0%) realized −$549 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%29W / 130L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$702per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$5
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$296
politics 26% −$31
sports 16% −$168
world 5% −$4
economics 2% +$1
crypto 2% −$46
culture 1% −$15
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 2% -9.7%
all 159 -8.1% -16.9% 18% 8% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 8% -10.0%
10% -24.8% 7% -18.6%
15% -32.1% 6% -26.5%
20% -38.7% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$917) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$17 · ×3.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$806
Realized−$549
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses29 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions2
Markets (closed)159 / 161
History coverage168d
Avg bet$702
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $546 $547 +$1 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $259 $259 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $879 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $275 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $210 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $225 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 18 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $839 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $816 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 07 $917 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,552 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,693 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $962 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $817 −$1 -0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in May? Jun 02 $403 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $1,211 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $1,099 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $514 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $762 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $755 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,136 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $865 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $834 −$1 -0%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 02 $1,221 −$1,221 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,670 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3,776 −$4 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,062 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,625 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $2,295 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $3,126 −$3 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $3,191 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,695 −$4 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $2,580 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,647 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $324 4h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $175 7h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $150 7h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 44h
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 47h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $274 47h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $275 2d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $210 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $225 8d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 8d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $225 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $213 8d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $213 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $326 8d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $327 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $546 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $720 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $721 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 100¢ $751 13d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $752 13d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $700 14d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $701 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 15d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $714 15d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $715 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $720 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $721 16d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $815 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $806.08 · official $806.08 (match) · 560 history records