Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:30:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78b3…3a3d crypto 436 markets active 4h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$24 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate83%363W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day45.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$14
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$11
sports 1% +$3
other 0% −$12
weather 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 329 -6.3% -15.2% 84% 12% -8.8%
≤30d 436 -6.0% -14.9% 83% 13% -9.2%
≤90d 436 -6.0% -14.9% 83% 13% -9.2%
all 436 -6.0% -14.9% 83% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 13% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 5% -17.9%
15% -30.5% 3% -25.9%
20% -37.3% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses363 / 73
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)436 / 436
History coverage13d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day45.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 436 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $16 −$7 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $6 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 956 history records