Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:42:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

78 0x78b3…8031 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover

! high turnover

Total PnL +$206 (+13%) realized +$219 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +128% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +90% what you keep after slip

Net edge+90%after slip

Net WR26%break-even

Win rate26%8W / 23L

Drawdown50%max

Avg bet$21per market

Trades / day19.5pace

Fees−$18est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +26%

net ROI/market (all)+106.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	31	+128.0%	+106.3%	26%	26%	+29.1%
≤30d	31	+128.0%	+106.3%	26%	26%	+29.1%
≤90d	31	+128.0%	+106.3%	26%	26%	+29.1%
all	31	+128.0%	+106.3%	26%	26%	+29.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover19.5 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+106.3%	26%	+29.1%
10%	+86.6%	26%	+16.7%
15%	+68.6%	26%	+5.5%
20%	+52.0%	26%	-4.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +128% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +275% → late -10% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$132 vs −$25 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$197

Realized+$219

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)26%

Wins / losses8 / 23

Est. fees paid−$18

Open positions2

Markets (closed)31 / 76

History coverage4d

Avg bet$21

Trades / day19.5

Drawdown50%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 31 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan?	Yes	12¢	12¢	$105	$101	−$4 (-4%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	Brazil	30¢	28¢	$105	$96	−$9 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada?	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-97%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 28	$20	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina?	Jun 28	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Jun 28	$5	+$66	+1290%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Argentina?	Jun 28	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$61	−$60	-98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 28	$93	−$90	-97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	Jun 28	$49	−$48	-98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Jun 28	$92	−$44	-47%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal?	Jun 27	$46	−$45	-97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 England?	Jun 27	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 3 Ghana?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-97%
Panama vs. England: O/U 6.5	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 1 Ghana?	Jun 27	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 27	$98	−$96	-98%
Exact Score: Croatia 1 - 2 Ghana?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-97%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$10	+$47	+472%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? AND Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw	Jun 27	$10	+$50	+498%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 27	$92	+$152	+165%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5)	Jun 27	$274	+$300	+109%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 3 Belgium?	Jun 27	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 0 IR Iran?	Jun 27	$31	−$30	-98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5	Jun 27	$77	+$173	+226%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 1 Spain?	Jun 27	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Spain?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 2 Iraq?	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France?	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$10	+$184	+1788%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany?	Jun 26	$5	+$86	+1668%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Germany?	Jun 25	$10	−$10	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in	BUY	6¢	$10	1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Jap	BUY	1¢	$5	1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY	6¢	$10	1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)	BUY Brazil	30¢	$107	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan?	BUY Yes	12¢	$108	1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Jap	BUY	2¢	$5	1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? AND Will Germany vs. Parag	BUY	2¢	$5	1h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 0 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Jap	BUY	2¢	$5	2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Japan end	BUY	5¢	$5	2h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY	3¢	$10	2h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada?	BUY Yes	10¢	$10	25h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$20	25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? AND Will South Africa vs. Canada e	BUY	3¢	$5	25h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? AND Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1	BUY	2¢	$10	25h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? AND Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Jap	BUY	2¢	$5	25h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? AND Will Germany win on 20	BUY	4¢	$10	25h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? AND Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1	BUY	1¢	$5	25h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 2 Austria? AND Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Arge	BUY	2¢	$5	37h
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 2 Argentina?	BUY Yes	4¢	$5	37h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Argentina?	BUY Yes	2¢	$10	38h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? AND Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 0 Arge	BUY	2¢	$5	38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	1¢	$5	38h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? AND Will Jordan vs. Argentina end	BUY	3¢	$5	38h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	28¢	$61	38h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$93	38h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	39¢	$49	39h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	6¢	$5	39h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? AND Exact Score: DR Congo 2 - 1	BUY	4¢	$10	39h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	SELL Portugal	16¢	$48	40h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 Portugal? AND Exact Score: DR Congo 3 - 1	BUY	3¢	$10	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.88 · official $255.09 · 87 history records