Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T16:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x78b1…f58f
crypto · 684 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,153 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,099 · open −$25
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$391
Realized−$1,099
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses387 / 280
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)667 / 684
History coverage223d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 17 History 667 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$7
14 days−$193
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? Yes 48¢ 71¢ $112 $163 +$52 (+46%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? No 92¢ 99¢ $66 $71 +$6 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Yes 93¢ 99¢ $43 $46 +$3 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Yes 57¢ 93¢ $14 $23 +$9 (+63%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $11 $17 +$5 (+46%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $29 $15 −$13 (-47%)
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027? No 15¢ 6¢ $28 $12 −$16 (-57%)
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? No 18¢ 12¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-33%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+55%)
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No 88¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 13m? Yes 84¢ 7¢ $67 $6 −$61 (-92%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+30%)
Will Trump attend 2 World Cup matches? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 8,000 in 2026? Yes 50¢ 30¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 4? Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during coal announcement? No 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Down 35¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +8%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $100 +$10 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $83 +$15 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET Jun 12 $150 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET Jun 12 $181 −$1 -1%
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $78 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$18 -76%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $168 −$3 -2%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $173 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$12 -46%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $24 +$1 +5%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 11 $70 −$13 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $187 −$26 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $0 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$6 +282%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $103 −$1 -1%
Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $10 +$3 +31%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $96 +$4 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 09 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $23 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 08 $94 +$6 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 +$10 +98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $8 +$7 +77%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 07 $64 +$16 +25%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 07 $121 −$13 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 06 $32 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 6? Jun 06 $43 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5? Jun 05 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +103%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $235 +$4 +2%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during coal announcement? Jun 04 $11 −$11 -99%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $97 −$7 -7%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $6 −$3 -52%
Meta (META) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1 +$1 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 28% −$564
other 18% +$230
finance 12% −$363
politics 12% −$223
tech 10% −$82
world 8% −$38
culture 4% +$85
sports 3% −$136
weather 2% −$18
economics 2% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 66¢ $6 44m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? SELL Yes 73¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 92¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 59¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $66 2h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 2h
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 3h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 100¢ $110 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? SELL Up 97¢ $97 20h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 94¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $55 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $80 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $87 22h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 90¢ $32 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $9 22h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 91¢ $39 23h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 89¢ $27 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $58 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 82¢ $83 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $90 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $89 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -3.1% -12.3% 59% 26% -9.8%
≤30d 143 -13.7% -21.9% 50% 25% -12.1%
≤90d 329 -6.6% -15.5% 58% 28% -10.9%
all 667 -2.4% -11.7% 58% 31% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 31% -12.1%
10% -20.1% 19% -20.5%
15% -27.9% 13% -28.2%
20% -34.9% 9% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $391.36 · official $391.08 (match) · 2577 history records