Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:43:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
78 0x78ae…f58f crypto 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-3%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate89%25W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$1
world 39% $0
other 14% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -5.9% -14.9% 0% 0% -13.9%
≤90d 19 -0.8% -10.2% 84% 0% -12.3%
all 28 -0.5% -10.0% 89% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -11.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -20.2%
15% -26.4% 0% -27.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses25 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage102d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 18 $155 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 31 $97 −$17 -18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 8? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? Apr 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? Apr 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 2? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 1? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 30? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 27? Mar 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? Mar 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 20? Mar 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 18? Mar 20 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 19? Mar 20 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 17? Mar 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 13? Mar 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on March 9? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 14? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 11? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 8? Mar 09 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $155 56m
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $155 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $70 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $106 17d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $11 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 64d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $13 70d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $9 71d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on April 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 72d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 76d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $13 77d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on April 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 78d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $11 79d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 80d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 84d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 85d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24? BUY No 100¢ $13 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,800 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $12 87d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 21? BUY No 100¢ $11 89d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $12 90d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $16 91d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $13 92d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records