Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:42:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
78 0x78ae…143a other 305 markets active 1h ago coverage 562d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$470 (-1%) realized −$327 · open −$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate47%127W / 145L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$3,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$687
14 days+$1,526
30 days+$3,032
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$2,109
world 21% −$260
politics 17% +$1,672
sports 13% −$1,041
culture 4% +$132
crypto 0% −$222
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.0% +1.3% 56% 52% +8.9%
≤30d 62 +14.1% +3.3% 53% 50% +27.7%
≤90d 130 -2.9% -12.1% 45% 42% -3.5%
all 272 -10.1% -18.7% 47% 36% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 36% -11.7%
10% -26.5% 31% -20.1%
15% -33.6% 29% -27.9%
20% -40.1% 26% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$137 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

562d coverage
Net worth$3,113
Realized−$327
Unrealized−$143
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses127 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions34
Markets (closed)272 / 305
History coverage562d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 84¢ $504 $661 +$157 (+31%)
Will Haissem Hassan score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 56¢ 97¢ $230 $397 +$167 (+73%)
Will David Raya win the Golden Glove at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 98¢ $344 $372 +$28 (+8%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 57¢ $132 $291 +$159 (+121%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $513 $235 −$278 (-54%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $156 $155 −$1 (-0%)
Will Charles De Ketelaere score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 45¢ 66¢ $94 $138 +$44 (+46%)
Will Ferran Torres score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 51¢ $141 $103 −$39 (-27%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 74¢ $63 $97 +$34 (+53%)
Will Luka Modrić score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 16¢ $271 $93 −$178 (-66%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 29¢ 30¢ $72 $74 +$1 (+2%)
Will Sadio Mané score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 36¢ $121 $70 −$50 (-42%)
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 57¢ $75 $67 −$9 (-12%)
Will Bruno Guimarães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 46¢ $39 $54 +$15 (+38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $63 $44 −$18 (-29%)
Will Erling Haaland win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $48 $38 −$11 (-22%)
Will Ricardo Pepi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 36¢ $29 $36 +$7 (+22%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-8%)
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $45 $22 −$22 (-50%)
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 96¢ $19 $22 +$3 (+13%)
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 38¢ $35 $19 −$16 (-45%)
Will a player representing Germany be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $70 $14 −$55 (-79%)
Will Erling Haaland win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 26¢ $4 $14 +$10 (+279%)
Will Germany score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+52%)
Will Harry Kane win the Silver Boot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 26¢ $4 $12 +$8 (+194%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 29 $101 +$213 +212%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $134 +$120 +90%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Marcel Sabitzer score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $132 +$88 +67%
Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $82 +$3 +4%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 28 $23 +$31 +133%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $47 +$18 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $134 +$98 +74%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $136 −$133 -98%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Petar Musa: 1+ goals Jun 27 $41 −$41 -100%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Senegal be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $23 +$18 +78%
Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $36 +$14 +39%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $96 +$159 +165%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $76 +$180 +238%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $73 −$72 -98%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $307 +$199 +65%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $199 +$86 +43%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 25 $63 −$63 -100%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ goals Jun 25 $55 +$201 +365%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $161 −$158 -98%
Ayoub El Kaabi: 1+ goals Jun 24 $109 −$108 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $137 +$84 +62%
Luka Modrić: 1+ goals Jun 23 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $16 +$8 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $117 +$266 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $219 −$215 -98%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $179 −$155 -87%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $170 −$168 -98%
Tomáš Souček: 1+ goals Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $297 +$209 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $117 +$133 +114%
Chris Wood: 1+ goals Jun 15 $96 −$94 -98%
Federico Valverde: 1+ goals Jun 15 $67 −$65 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 +$1,047 +648%
Will Arda Güler score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $16 +$3 +21%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $126 +$128 +101%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $181 +$127 +70%
Jamal Musiala: 1+ assists Jun 14 $111 −$109 -98%
Leroy Sané: 1+ assists Jun 14 $111 −$109 -98%
Kai Havertz: 1+ assists Jun 14 $96 −$94 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $234 +$66 +28%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $487 +$266 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $195 +$305 +156%
Will Folarin Balogun score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $31 +$19 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance SELL Japan 52¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $73 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 29¢ $91 1h
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 85¢ $20 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $134 23h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $54 25h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $33 25h
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $1 31h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 40h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 50¢ $64 42h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $60 43h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $47 43h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 43h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $58 43h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $136 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $91 44h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $2 46h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $0 47h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $0 47h
Petar Musa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $40 47h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $5 47h
Declan Rice: 1+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $27 47h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $134 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $96 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $73 2d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $57 2d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $19 2d
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,113.17 · official $3,113.17 (match) · 2207 history records