Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:22:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
78 0x78ad…177b other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$40 (+2%) realized +$39 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate73%19W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit15%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$49
sports 9% +$55
world 3% −$75
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.2% -5.7% 70% 60% -10.5%
≤30d 23 +6.8% -3.4% 74% 61% -6.4%
≤90d 26 +3.3% -6.5% 73% 58% -8.8%
all 26 +3.3% -6.5% 73% 58% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 58% -8.8%
10% -15.5% 46% -17.5%
15% -23.7% 27% -25.5%
20% -31.1% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$41 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses19 / 7
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage39d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit15%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$8 +22%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $56 +$19 +33%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $56 +$14 +25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 −$55 -68%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $280 +$16 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$37 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $201 −$91 -46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$13 -43%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $388 +$47 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$10 +34%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $72 +$5 +7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 +$11 +58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 +$7 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$4 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $35 −$33 -93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$12 +48%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $41 −$7 -16%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $131 +$11 +8%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $143 +$51 +36%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $60 +$16 +27%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $80 −$75 -94%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 19 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $145 +$27 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $201 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 84¢ $43 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $74 17h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $56 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $69 21h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 23h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 24h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 27h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $200 28h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $80 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 42h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 47¢ $109 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 44h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 39¢ $17 46h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $100 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $271 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $41 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $76 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $77 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $19 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $12 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.10 · official $201.10 (match) · 98 history records