Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78ab…a53f sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$54 (-3%) realized −$45 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate60%81W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$92
14 days−$122
30 days−$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$84
other 2% +$1
crypto 1% −$16
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -10.5% -19.1% 63% 52% -19.4%
≤30d 136 -11.0% -19.5% 60% 52% -14.4%
≤90d 136 -11.0% -19.5% 60% 52% -14.4%
all 136 -11.0% -19.5% 60% 52% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 52% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 32% -22.6%
15% -34.2% 16% -30.1%
20% -40.7% 8% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses81 / 55
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions3
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage16d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 52¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 61¢ 13¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-79%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 40¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $18 −$16 -94%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $23 +$7 +29%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $3 $0 +14%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$4 +34%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $9 −$2 -20%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 +$3 +22%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $7 +$1 +12%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 +$7 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +17%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $7 +$1 +19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $4 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $28 +$4 +13%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $13 +$2 +12%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $1 $0 -43%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $2 −$1 -74%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $7 −$5 -70%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$3 +26%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 $0 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner SELL Bebop 49¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 1 Winner BUY Bebop 51¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se SELL SPARTA 0¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 4¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 9¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 9¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 9¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 9¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 20¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 24¢ $12 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 15¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 15¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 30¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo SELL TDK 29¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 19¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 20¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 20¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 22¢ $5 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner SELL INOX Division 66¢ $3 3h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 40¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 60¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner SELL SPARTA 60¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 37¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 40¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 40¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner BUY SPARTA 50¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner BUY INOX Division 57¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.80 · official $2.80 (match) · 559 history records