Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78aa…2d2d crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (321 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$15 · open +$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate59%30W / 21L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$424per market
Trades / day320.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,483
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (321 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +66.2% +50.4% 59% 57% +4.7%
≤30d 51 +66.2% +50.4% 59% 57% +4.7%
≤90d 51 +66.2% +50.4% 59% 57% +4.7%
all 51 +66.2% +50.4% 59% 57% +4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover320.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +50.4% 57% +4.7%
10% ← realistic here +36.0% 53% -5.3%
15% +22.9% 49% -14.5%
20% +10.8% 47% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +95% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
30.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$322 vs −$296 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses30 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage5d
Avg bet$424
Trades / day320.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $29 $58 +$29 (+98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 27 $9,815 +$2,946 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 27 $990 −$990 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 27 $1,053 −$1,049 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 27 $430 +$570 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 27 $37 +$46 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 27 $764 +$2,135 +279%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $352 +$48 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $846 −$838 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 27 $4,224 −$2,701 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 27 $906 +$1,091 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $543 +$847 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $570 +$930 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $237 +$363 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $88 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 27 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $114 +$86 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$104 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 26 $284 −$280 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 24 $40 −$13 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$8 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$32 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$21 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$39 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$49 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$72 +272%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$20 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$20 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $17 +$28 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$13 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$47 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 23 $27 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$47 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $7 +$23 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$47 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $14 +$46 +330%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $14 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $8 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $69 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $47 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $18 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $40 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $18 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $18 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $0 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $8 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.32 · official $58.32 (match) · 1630 history records