Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:50:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x78a4…c007 crypto 70 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$300 (+29%) realized +$303 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%25W / 42L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day69.2pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$148
other 7% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 37% +2.5%
≤30d 67 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 37% +2.5%
≤90d 67 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 37% +2.5%
all 67 -11.0% -19.5% 37% 37% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.5% 37% +2.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.2% 36% -7.3%
15% -34.3% 31% -16.3%
20% -40.7% 27% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$303
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses25 / 42
Open positions3
Markets (closed)67 / 70
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day69.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$20 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$37 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $93 +$32 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$9 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $47 +$335 +712%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +121%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$20 +100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $42 +$55 +132%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$49 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$21 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$13 +127%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$13 +240%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -54%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $20 +$10 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $68 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $21 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 48m
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $11 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.61 · official $26.61 (match) · 185 history records