Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
78 0x78a2…9d46 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,428 (-8%) realized −$2,298 · open −$130
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%40W / 28L
Whale WR47%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$422per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$384est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5,712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,675
other 0% −$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 +83.9% +66.3% 52% 52% -47.1%
≤90d 68 +36.6% +23.6% 59% 59% -18.7%
all 68 +36.6% +23.6% 59% 59% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.6% 59% -18.7%
10% +11.7% 59% -26.5%
15% +1.0% 53% -33.6%
20% -8.9% 43% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 47% (≥$606) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late +58% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$268 vs −$479 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,298
Unrealized−$130
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses40 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$384
Open positions2
Markets (closed)68 / 70
History coverage59d
Avg bet$422
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 19¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Yes $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $507 −$498 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 28 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 27 $506 +$302 +60%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 26 $1,818 −$1,800 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $1,118 −$1,100 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 25 $1,013 −$44 -4%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) May 25 $898 −$888 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 May 24 $1,012 +$772 +76%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 23 $900 −$888 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,800 −$1,777 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 22 $809 −$800 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 22 $304 +$205 +67%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $606 +$263 +43%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 May 20 $171 +$105 +62%
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) May 20 $303 +$99 +33%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 +$507 +4927%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 19 $102 −$5 -5%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 19 $808 +$373 +46%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 19 $202 +$139 +69%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 May 19 $605 +$250 +41%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $504 +$210 +42%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $678 +$1,074 +158%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 14 $270 −$266 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 210.5 May 14 $472 +$375 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 12 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 12 $203 +$197 +97%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $506 +$327 +65%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $607 +$361 +60%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 09 $334 +$312 +93%
Spread: Thunder (-15.5) May 08 $270 −$266 -98%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 07 $406 −$400 -98%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $502 +$507 +101%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 05 $507 −$500 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $723 +$287 +40%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 03 $203 −$200 -99%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $275 +$652 +237%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 206.5 May 02 $101 +$84 +82%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $396 −$388 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 May 02 $101 +$77 +76%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $786 −$777 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $203 +$148 +73%
Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 214.5 May 01 $101 +$95 +93%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 211.5 Apr 30 $203 −$203 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $152 −$152 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 208.5 Apr 30 $101 +$63 +62%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Apr 30 $152 +$136 +89%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Apr 30 $406 +$90 +22%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets: O/U 223.5 Apr 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 214.5 Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $31 1h
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $507 20d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1,010 20d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 62¢ $506 21d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Spurs 66¢ $1,818 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 47¢ $1,016 22d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 55¢ $969 22d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,013 22d
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) BUY Cavaliers 61¢ $898 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $102 23d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1,012 24d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 56¢ $900 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $1,013 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 57¢ $787 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 BUY Under 61¢ $809 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 59¢ $304 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 100¢ $869 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 69¢ $606 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 SELL Over 100¢ $276 28d
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) SELL Cavaliers 90¢ $402 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 95¢ $517 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $10 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 57¢ $101 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 61¢ $171 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 SELL Over 48¢ $96 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 29d
Spread: Knicks (-11.5) BUY Cavaliers 67¢ $303 29d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Spurs 58¢ $101 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 74¢ $302 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 136 history records