Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:01:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x789e…3bb1 world 137 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,196 (-7%) realized −$1,197 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%43W / 92L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$224
7 days−$143
14 days−$147
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$658
politics 14% −$202
other 8% −$364
tech 3% −$133
crypto 0% −$26
culture 0% +$16
sports 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -19.4% -27.1% 38% 21% -17.2%
≤30d 59 -16.5% -24.5% 37% 25% -15.5%
≤90d 132 -13.5% -21.7% 32% 21% -17.1%
all 135 -13.0% -21.2% 32% 21% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 21% -16.5%
10% -28.8% 17% -24.5%
15% -35.7% 13% -31.8%
20% -42.0% 10% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$38 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$1,197
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses43 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)135 / 137
History coverage118d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? No 6¢ 6¢ $29 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $121 +$4 +4%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $16 −$13 -84%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $80 −$53 -66%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $83 −$79 -95%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $14 −$4 -29%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 17 $318 −$76 -24%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -79%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $122 +$32 +26%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $118 +$4 +4%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $110 +$8 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $122 −$8 -6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $140 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 14 $8 +$4 +50%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 14 $44 −$8 -19%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $86 +$54 +63%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $19 −$5 -26%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +23%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 13 $69 +$27 +40%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$15 -32%
Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -68%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -20%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $38 −$7 -18%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $50 −$9 -19%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $10 −$5 -54%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $31 +$3 +10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $11 −$1 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +26%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $19 −$2 -13%
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Jun 10 $13 −$1 -5%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $9 +$5 +58%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 09 $17 +$2 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $26 +$5 +18%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $68 −$4 -5%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 04 $5 −$1 -20%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Jun 04 $22 −$2 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $12 +$4 +37%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $19 −$15 -81%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 03 $29 −$2 -6%
Will Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary Jun 03 $12 +$3 +28%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 01 $12 −$11 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele May 31 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? May 31 $11 $0 -4%
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? May 31 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in June? May 30 $2 $0 -12%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in June? May 30 $4 −$1 -20%
Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in June? May 30 $6 −$1 -16%
Pam Bondi testifies before congress by May 31? May 30 $31 −$8 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 6¢ $29 12m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 64¢ $29 13m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 65¢ $30 13m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 1¢ $3 14m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 6¢ $27 14m
Will Masoud Pezeshkian sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 7¢ $16 1h
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 18¢ $80 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 61¢ $96 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $92 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $91 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 7¢ $109 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL No 1¢ $4 5h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY No 15¢ $83 10h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 34¢ $83 10h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $0 15h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $0 39h
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $150 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 59¢ $150 2d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 61¢ $154 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $154 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 70¢ $122 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $122 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 80¢ $118 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $118 2d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $110 2d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $110 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? BUY No 9¢ $1 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? SELL No 3¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.64 · official $27.71 · 413 history records