Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:24:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x789b…c08f sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$400 (-36%) realized −$399 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate74%14W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$249
30 days−$201
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$388
world 6% −$14
economics 3% $0
other 2% $0
weather 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -37.9% -43.8% 50% 50% -50.2%
≤90d 13 -18.4% -26.2% 69% 38% -47.8%
all 19 -17.5% -25.4% 74% 26% -45.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 26% -45.0%
10% -32.5% 21% -50.2%
15% -39.0% 5% -55.1%
20% -45.0% 5% -59.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$100 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$399
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses14 / 5
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage169d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 09 $142 −$141 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 04 $110 −$108 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $100 +$26 +26%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $98 +$22 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St May 12 $164 −$161 -98%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 12 $11 $0 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? May 12 $13 +$1 +7%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru May 12 $15 $0 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee May 12 $16 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 12 $32 +$18 +57%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $67 +$15 +23%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs May 08 $79 +$15 +18%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Apr 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 11, 2026? Mar 03 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 03 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra Feb 04 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 04 $21 $0 +0%
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition Jan 10 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $74 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $142 8d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY HANJIN BRION 25¢ $110 13d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Dplus KIA 79¢ $100 19d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 81¢ $98 26d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group St BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $164 36d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 81¢ $67 40d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $79 50d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 63¢ $32 52d
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina BUY Linda Noskova 38¢ $76 60d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 94¢ $13 86d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $16 92d
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in Febru BUY No 97¢ $15 99d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 105d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 97¢ $11 108d
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 11, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $14 125d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 141d
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia decrease the target for the cash ra BUY No 100¢ $18 156d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $21 158d
Nothing Ever Happens: Nuclear Edition BUY Yes 99¢ $23 168d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.00 · official $73.00 (match) · 34 history records