Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:23:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x789b…11f8 sports 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,802 (-7%) realized −$7,779 · open −$23
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate66%97W / 50L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$755per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1,139est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$614
7 days+$614
14 days+$1,052
30 days−$2,035
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$5,171
world 4% −$2,709
crypto 0% −$27
other 0% −$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +48.8% +34.6% 100% 90% +14.7%
≤30d 45 +4.5% -5.5% 67% 64% -14.4%
≤90d 147 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 61% -14.1%
all 147 -1.0% -10.4% 66% 61% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 61% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 44% -22.4%
15% -26.8% 29% -29.9%
20% -34.0% 22% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$734) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$215 vs −$576 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$484
Realized−$7,779
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses97 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$1,139
Open positions2
Markets (closed)147 / 149
History coverage72d
Avg bet$755
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 66¢ $345 $332 −$12 (-4%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $162 $151 −$11 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 29 $304 +$106 +35%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $454 +$146 +32%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 29 $79 +$21 +27%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $374 +$71 +19%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $298 +$52 +18%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $103 +$17 +16%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +49%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $557 +$48 +9%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $101 +$119 +117%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $19 +$32 +165%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $90 +$60 +67%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $453 +$332 +73%
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) Jun 21 $46 +$54 +117%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $2,445 +$805 +33%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $86 +$14 +16%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $480 +$120 +25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,118 +$313 +15%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $265 −$15 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4,057 −$2,947 -73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $372 −$370 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $305 +$195 +64%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $417 −$417 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $193 −$191 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4,896 +$1,224 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $120 +$80 +67%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $108 +$92 +85%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $1,380 −$1,080 -78%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $256 +$84 +33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $135 +$275 +203%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,364 +$466 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $327 +$178 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $610 −$415 -68%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $190 +$35 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $95 −$95 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $149 +$28 +19%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $503 +$114 +23%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $450 −$450 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $843 +$797 +94%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 01 $979 +$512 +52%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $1,140 −$1,045 -92%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $884 −$670 -76%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) May 30 $252 +$448 +178%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $495 +$452 +91%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $7,077 −$6,327 -89%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $245 −$245 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 28¢ $53 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $113 2h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 75¢ $262 13h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 76¢ $191 13h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 71¢ $142 14h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 77¢ $55 14h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) BUY T1 77¢ $107 14h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 78¢ $79 14h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $298 37h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $50 39h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $10 39h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $43 39h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 84¢ $26 39h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 84¢ $347 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY No 92¢ $557 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $19 41h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $101 41h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $1 41h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 61¢ $153 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $73 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 65¢ $57 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $63 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 88¢ $440 8d
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $41 8d
Map Handicap: FAL (-2.5) vs FURIA (+2.5) BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 52¢ $107 8d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $90 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 86¢ $86 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $828 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $73 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $483.69 · official $483.69 (match) · 1161 history records