Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7896…dfd2 other 67 markets active 8h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$478 (-23%) realized −$484 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%17W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$120
14 days−$150
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$40
world 44% −$431
sports 4% +$23
crypto 1% −$11
tech 1% −$13
politics 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -8.5% -17.2% 42% 39% -26.1%
≤30d 33 -11.6% -20.0% 39% 36% -28.5%
≤90d 41 -28.8% -35.6% 32% 29% -59.7%
all 54 -19.9% -27.5% 31% 30% -39.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 30% -39.1%
10% -34.5% 26% -44.9%
15% -40.8% 24% -50.2%
20% -46.6% 17% -55.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized−$484
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses17 / 37
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)54 / 67
History coverage161d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $102 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 44¢ 46¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $49 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+13%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $19 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+5%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+12%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 44¢ 48¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$6 +40%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$3 +8%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$4 -41%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 −$4 -25%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$13 +131%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +54%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$11 -36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$22 +142%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 −$3 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$17 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -13%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 12 $111 −$108 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +165%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $48 +$17 +36%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $45 −$30 -66%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 11 $27 −$13 -47%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$7 -74%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 03 $50 −$22 -44%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 03 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 02 $150 −$150 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 02 $260 −$260 -100%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 08 $25 −$24 -96%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $75 +$250 +334%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $5 +$12 +245%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $23 +$22 +96%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Feb 20 $6 $0 -2%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 02 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 30 $55 −$29 -52%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)? Jan 25 $1 −$1 -51%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 42.0 and 42.4 on January 23, 2 Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 7h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 17h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $12 17h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 29h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $9 37h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 38h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 40h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $24 41h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 41h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 42h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $8 44h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $25 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 44h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $7 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.95 · official $394.95 (match) · 175 history records