Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7893…613e world 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%30W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$8
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$8
politics 28% −$1
other 21% −$9
economics 8% $0
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% +$2
sports 0% +$5
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.7% -8.0% 43% 14% -6.8%
≤30d 23 +0.5% -9.1% 30% 9% -8.9%
≤90d 32 +0.6% -9.0% 34% 6% -9.2%
all 64 -0.2% -9.7% 47% 11% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 11% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 3% -17.9%
15% -26.2% 3% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses30 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage535d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $47 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $54 +$9 +16%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $39 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 07 $2 $0 -5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $50 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $16 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $140 −$3 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $128 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $127 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $37 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $34 +$5 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $24 −$1 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $92 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $101 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $23 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $222 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $244 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $222 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $4 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $190 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 30 $222 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Dec 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 28 $8 +$1 +7%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese May 19 $6 $0 +4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? May 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 17 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? May 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? May 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 11? May 11 $9 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 10 $9 $0 +0%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on May 8? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? May 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 07 $9 $0 +2%
Will the SPD be part of the next German government? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $39 7h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 11h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $13 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $15 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $12 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $33 27h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 25¢ $20 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $9 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.20 · official $46.20 (match) · 291 history records