Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7892…01ab sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$63 (-12%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 44% -24.8%
≤30d 16 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 44% -24.8%
≤90d 16 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 44% -24.8%
all 16 -5.0% -14.0% 44% 44% -24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 44% -24.8%
10% -22.3% 38% -32.0%
15% -29.8% 38% -38.6%
20% -36.7% 38% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage7d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 56¢ 56¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54¢ 55¢ $37 $37 +$0 (+1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Cleveland Guardians 42¢ 42¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $21 +$25 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $25 −$2 -7%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $67 +$13 +19%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $27 +$20 +73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $8 +$11 +146%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $7 +$9 +134%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $63 −$63 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $7 +$10 +146%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $49 +$42 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $37 1h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $51 1h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $21 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $21 43h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $29 44h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $23 45h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 46¢ $24 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $27 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 43¢ $13 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $46 3d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $22 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $7 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 40¢ $8 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $7 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $7 5d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $13 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $40 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 51¢ $63 6d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $12 6d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 53¢ $49 7d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $25 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.73 · official $107.73 (match) · 36 history records