Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7890…29d2 crypto 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$272 (+21%) realized +$271 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$16
politics 24% $0
sports 15% +$10
other 9% +$174
tech 8% +$140
finance 6% −$73
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -14.0% -22.2% 52% 36% -15.2%
≤90d 32 -18.8% -26.6% 53% 34% -16.6%
all 40 -12.3% -20.6% 52% 38% +9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 38% +9.1%
10% -28.2% 32% -1.3%
15% -35.2% 30% -10.9%
20% -41.5% 30% -19.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +21% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$11 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$271
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 42
History coverage100d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 26 $320 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 2? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2AM ET May 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $89 −$88 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15? May 25 $122 +$18 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 23? May 11 $113 +$17 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 22? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 19? Apr 20 $73 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 18? Apr 19 $92 +$7 +8%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on March 24? Mar 25 $84 +$126 +150%
XRP Up or Down - March 24, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on March 23? Mar 24 $110 +$140 +127%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on March 20? Mar 23 $102 +$98 +96%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 19? Mar 20 $36 +$49 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on March 18? Mar 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $80 1h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $80 23h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $80 23h
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $80 23h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $80 23h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 16¢ $1 23h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 99¢ $1 7d
BNB Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $1 10d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.64 · official $1.64 (match) · 84 history records