Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x788f…6db8 other 251 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-0%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 240L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$27
14 days−$40
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$46
sports 21% −$18
economics 8% −$9
politics 8% −$14
culture 7% −$8
crypto 6% −$5
world 4% −$4
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 160 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 250 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)250 / 251
History coverage146d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 250 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 26 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 26 $349 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $720 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 25 $581 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $222 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $429 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 25 $227 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 25 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $103 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $492 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 24 $551 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 24 $187 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $413 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 23 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 23 $187 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $210 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 23 $600 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 23 $123 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 22 $253 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 22 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $378 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $318 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $426 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 21 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $266 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $419 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $133 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $836 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $471 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $728 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $489 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $302 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $459 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $310 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $45 2h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 4h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 5h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 7h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $46 8h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $46 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $46 12h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $46 14h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 15h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 17h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $46 17h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $46 18h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 20h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 24h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 26h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 27h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 29h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 30h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 31h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 34h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 36h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 36h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 37h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $46 39h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $46 41h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 46h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.38 · official $45.38 (match) · 1534 history records