Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x788e…e086 crypto 560 markets active 7h ago coverage 17d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d only
✗ bot/MM pace (174 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$123 (-2%) realized −$119 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate47%259W / 296L
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day174.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$131
14 days+$304
30 days+$381
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$79
sports 14% +$284
other 1% +$7
tech 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (174 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 268 -3.1% -12.3% 49% 47% -6.6%
≤30d 555 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 44% -5.2%
≤90d 555 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 44% -5.2%
all 555 +0.6% -9.0% 47% 44% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover174.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 44% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 42% -14.3%
15% -25.6% 40% -22.5%
20% -32.9% 34% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$119
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses259 / 296
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)555 / 560
History coverage17d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day174.4
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 555 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$11 +44%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$4 +21%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$13 +64%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$18 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$36 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$19 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$16 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$6 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $27 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$12 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$33 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$19 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$20 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$16 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$18 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$19 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$23 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$19 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $20 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $20 29h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $20 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY 60¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.71 · official $15.71 (match) · 3500 history records