Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:04:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x788a…41aa crypto 569 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$4,758 (+19%) realized +$1,134 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%321W / 248L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day364.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$412
7 days+$1,446
14 days+$1,134
30 days+$1,134
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 +6.1% -4.0% 57% 54% -3.7%
≤30d 569 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 53% -5.4%
≤90d 569 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 53% -5.4%
all 569 +3.9% -6.0% 56% 53% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover364.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 53% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 41% -14.4%
15% -23.2% 25% -22.7%
20% -30.7% 16% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$28 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$1,134
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses321 / 248
Open positions0
Markets (closed)569 / 569
History coverage8d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day364.4
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 85¢ 100¢ $76 $90 +$14 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $77 +$14 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$23 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$93 +480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $57 +$8 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $65 +$25 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $135 −$73 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$14 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $84 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $120 −$59 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $80 +$10 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $131 −$9 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$59 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $74 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$89 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $86 +$95 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $32 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$64 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $81 +$184 +229%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $56 +$15 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $48 +$22 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $88 +$33 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $86 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $54 +$17 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $79 +$74 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $81 +$75 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $30 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$8 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $72 +$32 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$16 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$11 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $67 −$7 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $3 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $27 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $23 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $12 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $6 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $4 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.00 · official $90.00 (match) · 3500 history records