Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:49:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7886…ec60 sports 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$32 (-0%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate40%179W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$301est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$190
7 days−$256
14 days−$164
30 days−$1,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,014
other 10% +$159
tech 0% −$3
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -38.4% -44.2% 20% 20% -37.7%
≤30d 171 -23.2% -30.5% 31% 26% -19.1%
≤90d 384 -13.6% -21.9% 41% 35% -15.7%
all 450 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 35% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.1% 35% -13.8%
10% -30.5% 30% -22.0%
15% -37.2% 26% -29.6%
20% -43.4% 20% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$23 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses179 / 271
Est. fees paid−$301
Open positions0
Markets (closed)450 / 450
History coverage119d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 450 Trades
no open positions (177 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $52 +$18 +36%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $21 +$31 +145%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $38 +$57 +152%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $119 −$63 -52%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $122 −$33 -27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $22 +$8 +34%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$4 -18%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $87 −$58 -68%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $13 −$12 -97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $46 −$45 -99%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $27 −$4 -15%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $127 −$11 -9%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Jun 19 $41 −$5 -11%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $9 −$2 -17%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 18 $13 +$22 +172%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $41 −$10 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $46 −$13 -28%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $69 −$26 -38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $91 +$36 +39%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$1 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $115 +$5 +4%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $47 +$9 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $47 +$22 +48%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $111 −$7 -6%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group St Jun 12 $22 −$8 -39%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $62 −$36 -58%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $69 −$8 -12%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $178 −$7 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $16 −$2 -11%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $28 −$3 -10%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 11 $35 −$1 -4%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $95 −$3 -4%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $46 $0 +1%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $62 −$5 -9%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 11 $92 −$7 -7%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 11 $4 −$1 -19%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $23 −$2 -8%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $45 +$39 +86%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $53 +$47 +88%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $34 +$8 +23%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $10 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $52 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 73¢ $52 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 40¢ $21 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL Virtus.pro 100¢ $95 1h
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY Virtus.pro 39¢ $38 2h
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY InterActive Philippines 35¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $56 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 99¢ $55 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 24¢ $18 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 30¢ $25 16h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 26¢ $21 17h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $154 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 18¢ $12 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 15¢ $11 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $30 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 42¢ $10 22h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 26¢ $15 22h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 61¢ $45 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $22 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 53¢ $43 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 22¢ $0 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 21¢ $17 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 25¢ $20 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $81 25h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 1¢ $1 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 1¢ $0 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $3 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 22¢ $17 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 32¢ $26 26h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 43¢ $40 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1256 history records