Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:01:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7886…4117 crypto 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%81W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$13
other 4% +$3
sports 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 154 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 44% -10.1%
≤30d 159 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 44% -10.7%
≤90d 159 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 44% -10.7%
all 159 -5.9% -14.9% 51% 44% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.9% 44% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 32% -19.2%
15% -30.4% 25% -27.0%
20% -37.3% 18% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses81 / 78
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)159 / 165
History coverage7d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +46%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +357%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$16 +756%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +70%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$4 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$5 +259%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$2 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 34¢ $2 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 53m
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 6h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 57¢ $5 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 9h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 10h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 10h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 19h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.76 · official $5.76 (match) · 374 history records