Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:33:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7884…1fb0 crypto 399 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+1%) realized +$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate44%172W / 218L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$77now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$71
7 days−$71
14 days−$126
30 days+$106
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$110
sports 34% +$206
other 6% −$43
politics 0% −$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -48.5% -53.4% 29% 29% -47.6%
≤30d 113 +13.2% +2.4% 50% 49% -4.2%
≤90d 224 -1.5% -10.8% 46% 45% -10.6%
all 390 -2.0% -11.3% 44% 39% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 39% -8.9%
10% -19.8% 36% -17.6%
15% -27.6% 34% -25.5%
20% -34.7% 31% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$77
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses172 / 218
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions4
Markets (closed)390 / 399
History coverage161d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 390 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 64¢ 62¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $10 +$7 +66%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $16 +$14 +86%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $12 −$12 -99%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $3 +$2 +59%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $16 +$8 +50%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +93%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $5 +$8 +158%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $16 +$7 +42%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$12 +236%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$9 +46%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$19 +185%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $30 +$17 +57%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $11 −$1 -8%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$19 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $16 −$11 -65%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $11 +$9 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners AND Cabo V BUY 13¢ $2 57m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 64¢ $15 59m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $18 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $36 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $6 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 80¢ $17 2h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 2h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $5 5h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $10 5h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $16 5h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Inner Circle Esports 62¢ $3 11h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Infinite 49¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Infinite 49¢ $4 12h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 25h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $10 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 25h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Sashi Esport 40¢ $4 28h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $10 28h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super Dracu BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 44¢ $4 28h
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 32¢ $5 28h
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 52¢ $21 29h
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 66¢ $16 31h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $11 31h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 51¢ $6 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $76.71 · official $78.65 · 1015 history records