Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:45:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

78 0x7882…cb0a crypto 22 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$8 (-18%) realized −$7 · open −$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip

Net edge-37%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day54.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-25.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-18.1%	-25.9%	43%	33%	-28.7%
≤30d	21	-18.1%	-25.9%	43%	33%	-28.7%
≤90d	21	-18.1%	-25.9%	43%	33%	-28.7%
all	21	-18.1%	-25.9%	43%	33%	-28.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover54.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-25.9%	33%	-28.7%
10% ← realistic here	-33.0%	29%	-35.6%
15%	-39.5%	24%	-41.8%
20%	-45.4%	24%	-47.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 47% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

22% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -8% → late -27% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.39 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$7

Unrealized−$1

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 22

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day54.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	6¢	1¢	$1	$0	−$1 (-89%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	Jun 11	$2	+$2	+79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	Jun 11	$1	$0	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	Jun 11	$1	+$1	+58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Jun 11	$3	$0	-5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$2	-80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$1	-46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Jun 11	$1	+$1	+95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Jun 11	$7	$0	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$1	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 11	$2	−$1	-38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Jun 11	$1	$0	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 11	$4	$0	+0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 11	$2	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Jun 11	$1	+$1	+98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 11	$1	+$1	+86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June?	BUY No	19¢	$4	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	SELL Up	17¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET	BUY Down	54¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	SELL Up	98¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET	BUY Up	60¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$3	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	46¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	5¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	SELL Down	14¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	SELL Down	6¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$2	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$1	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	SELL Down	53¢	$2	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	BUY Down	25¢	$1	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Down	24¢	$0	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$1	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$1	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$1	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Up	64¢	$0	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	SELL Up	62¢	$5	5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$1	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 61 history records