Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7881…5c15 sports 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 691d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$268 (-3%) realized −$381 · open +$113
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%45W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$633now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$217
7 days−$306
14 days−$185
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$746
other 31% −$18
politics 30% +$22
crypto 4% +$394
world 2% +$38
tech 1% +$71
weather 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -55.7% -59.9% 15% 15% -56.3%
≤30d 16 -6.6% -15.5% 31% 31% -18.2%
≤90d 51 -64.7% -68.1% 12% 12% -61.4%
all 133 -17.6% -25.4% 34% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.4% 33% -13.8%
10% -32.6% 33% -22.0%
15% -39.1% 31% -29.6%
20% -45.1% 30% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$49 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

691d coverage
Net worth$633
Realized−$381
Unrealized+$113
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses45 / 88
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions13
Markets (closed)133 / 146
History coverage691d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 74¢ $100 $237 +$137 (+137%)
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 65¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-59%)
Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $51 +$94 +184%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $51 +$36 +70%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Jun 22 $31 −$11 -35%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $61 −$28 -46%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $152 +$121 +80%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a dr May 26 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Girona FC vs. Elche CF end in a draw? May 26 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Trump say "Communist" or "Radical" 2+ times during the McDonald's May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw? May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump say "Egg" or "Beef" during the McDonald's Summit on Novembe May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. RU Saint-Gilloise end in a draw? May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw? May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Solomon public sale? May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Makhachev Parlay - Islam Wins Submission & Fight Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds May 23 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "DOGE" during the McDonald's Summit on Nove May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Manchester United (-1.5) May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw? May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Solana reach $190 in November? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw? May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Solana reach $200 in November? May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Lakers vs. Raptors May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 May 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? May 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Steve Harrington die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Will Byers die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? May 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 May 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Jim Hopper die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? May 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 47m
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 2h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 2h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $26 2h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 44h
Will Spain win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 45h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes 5¢ $20 2d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 2d
Will there be 10+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 3d
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $26 4d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $77 4d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 11¢ $33 4d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 31¢ $102 6d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY No 19¢ $61 7d
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 7d
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $51 7d
Will Lionel Messi score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 7d
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 24¢ $41 8d
Will RC Celta de Vigo vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 31d
Will Real Betis Balompié vs. Levante UD end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 31d
Will Getafe CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 31d
Will Valencia CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.08 · official $633.08 (match) · 302 history records