Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:52:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7880…9154 other 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 114L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$151per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$22
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 28% −$30
politics 27% −$16
sports 16% −$9
crypto 7% −$3
finance 6% −$2
economics 6% −$5
world 5% −$1
culture 4% −$5
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.6% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 67 -0.6% -10.1% 13% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 118 -0.4% -9.9% 18% 0% -9.8%
all 137 -0.4% -9.9% 17% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage101d
Avg bet$151
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $112 −$1 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 17 $59 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 16 $49 $0 +1%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 14 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $235 $0 +0%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $94 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $102 −$1 -1%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $156 −$2 -2%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $48 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 10 $58 −$3 -5%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $97 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $525 −$2 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $108 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $47 $0 +1%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $36 $0 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 03 $66 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $150 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $306 +$2 +0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $29 $0 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $33 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $67 −$1 -2%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $58 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $41 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 59m
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $27 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 27, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $27 5h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $56 6h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $57 12h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $43 12h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $43 16h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 17h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 23h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $52 23h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 29h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $53 29h
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $53 35h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 95¢ $52 36h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $53 41h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $58 41h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $59 45h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 46h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $55 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $48 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $60 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL No 98¢ $49 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 97¢ $49 3d
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $29 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.53 · official $45.53 (match) · 536 history records