Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x787f…a8bb crypto 931 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate50%461W / 469L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$66
14 days−$51
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-43.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 514 -69.8% -72.7% 18% 1% -22.5%
≤30d 833 -42.0% -47.5% 46% 2% -11.2%
≤90d 930 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 6% -11.0%
all 930 -37.1% -43.1% 50% 6% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.1% 6% -11.0%
10% -48.6% 6% -19.5%
15% -53.5% 4% -27.3%
20% -58.1% 3% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses461 / 469
Open positions1
Markets (closed)930 / 931
History coverage70d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 930 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 399 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.17 (match) · 1536 history records