Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
78 0x787d…cba8 other 180 markets active 1h ago coverage 781d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$18 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate42%52W / 71L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$17
14 days+$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$22
politics 16% +$2
other 12% +$15
crypto 8% $0
world 6% +$3
tech 1% −$7
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$2
culture 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +33.4% +20.7% 53% 47% +3.4%
≤30d 82 +4.3% -5.7% 44% 32% -10.5%
≤90d 84 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 32% -8.3%
all 123 +1.9% -7.8% 42% 28% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 28% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 23% -18.1%
15% -24.7% 18% -26.0%
20% -32.1% 16% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

781d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized+$18
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses52 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions57
Markets (closed)123 / 180
History coverage781d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+8%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 42¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+25%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 80¢ 97¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Will Sui reach $1.80 before 2027? No 64¢ 64¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31? No 77¢ 81¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? Yes 58¢ 52¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 70¢ 59¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by June 30, 2027? Yes 79¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+16%)
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Yes 56¢ 86¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+54%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 67¢ 76¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 74¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30? No 95¢ 96¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 71¢ 66¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 70¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 66¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 67¢ 65¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? Jun 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 16 $1 $0 -3%
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -6%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +270%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 13 $7 −$4 -53%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -59%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$7 +122%
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June? Jun 12 $1 $0 -20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +44%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 11 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $85 by end of June? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +117%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 11 $8 $0 -4%
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 20 Jun 11 $1 +$4 +412%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $0 +$1 +220%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -11%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $350 in June? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 10 $13 +$1 +11%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $6 +$3 +55%
Will RISE launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3 $0 -2%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 08 $6 $0 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 08 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $82 in June? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -77%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 Jun 08 $6 $0 -5%
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$2 -33%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 -1%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $64 in June? Jun 06 $4 −$2 -60%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Pump.fun dip to $0.0014 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 05 $5 +$5 +112%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $14 −$5 -34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 05 $55 −$3 -6%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 04 $3 $0 -7%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 04 $11 −$5 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4 1h
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Will Russia capture Prymorske by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 66¢ $2 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $3 2h
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 2h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 2h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 2h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 39h
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 46h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY No 75¢ $2 2d
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? BUY No 27¢ $1 2d
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY No 75¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 3d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 78¢ $2 3d
Will Trump attend 3 or more World Cup matches? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 3d
Xi meets with Lee Jae-Myung by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 71¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $151.37 · official $151.19 (match) · 492 history records