Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x787d…dec6 crypto 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$251 (-3%) realized −$251 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%112W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$26
30 days−$102
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$495
sports 14% −$255
other 0% −$15
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 25% -10.3%
≤30d 56 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 38% -13.9%
≤90d 271 -7.0% -15.9% 41% 34% -17.1%
all 277 -7.9% -16.7% 40% 34% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 34% -17.5%
10% -24.7% 27% -25.4%
15% -32.0% 18% -32.6%
20% -38.6% 14% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$12 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$251
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses112 / 165
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions0
Markets (closed)277 / 275
History coverage185d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 277 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $17 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $72 −$22 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $82 −$50 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 25 $120 +$59 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $38 +$29 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 25 $55 −$11 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$19 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$6 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $34 −$19 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$16 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 08 $37 −$16 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $24 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 29 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 29 $194 −$120 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 29 $91 +$30 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 27 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 27 $7 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 27 $102 −$42 -41%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $124 −$47 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 27 $51 +$27 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 27 $24 +$28 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $31 −$9 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 27 $4 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 27 $2 +$2 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 27 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 27 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 26 $52 −$19 -37%
T20 Blast: Hampshire vs Essex May 26 $21 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 26 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 26 $15 +$6 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 26 $15 −$5 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 26 $31 +$10 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 26 $33 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 26 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 26 $10 −$4 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 26 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 26 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $7 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 26 $2 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $29 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 870 history records