Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
78 0x787b…652b sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized +$14 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,321now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$576
sports 48% −$366
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.1% -7.7% 33% 33% +5.3%
≤30d 9 +2.1% -7.7% 33% 33% +5.3%
≤90d 9 +2.1% -7.7% 33% 33% +5.3%
all 9 +2.1% -7.7% 33% 33% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 33% +5.3%
10% -16.5% 33% -4.7%
15% -24.6% 33% -13.9%
20% -32.0% 33% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$136 · ×2.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$1,321
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage4d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1,008 $1,004 −$4 (-0%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 30¢ 28¢ $70 $65 −$5 (-7%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $75 +$235 +315%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $37 −$37 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $206 +$164 +79%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $510 −$504 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $79 −$78 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $286 +$643 +224%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $92 −$90 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,321.34 · official $1,321.34 (match) · 21 history records