Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x787a…fac1 other 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$79 (-0%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 238L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$43
sports 23% −$23
politics 10% −$8
culture 7% −$7
economics 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$2
world 4% −$2
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 179 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 238
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage138d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $122 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $823 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $213 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $165 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $535 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $137 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $373 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $205 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $131 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $355 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $61 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $417 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $321 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $614 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $76 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $726 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $286 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $660 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $293 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $210 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $492 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $726 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $368 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $535 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $675 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $241 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $701 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 06 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $464 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $645 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $217 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $59 2h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $59 3h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 5h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 7h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $59 11h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 13h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 14h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 15h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 20h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 22h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 23h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 24h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $59 35h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 37h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $59 39h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $59 40h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 42h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 44h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 44h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 45h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $60 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $60 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.49 · official $58.49 (match) · 1417 history records