Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7879…822a
other · 399 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3,657 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,290 · open −$639
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9,695
Realized−$1,290
Unrealized−$639
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses136 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions31
Markets (closed)368 / 399
History coverage208d
Avg bet$592
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 31 History 368 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days−$341
14 days−$1,161
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 70¢ 99¢ $3,166 $4,440 +$1,273 (+40%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 5–10%? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $2,622 $2,650 +$27 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $954 $936 −$18 (-2%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 90¢ 98¢ $483 $525 +$42 (+9%)
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 33¢ 18¢ $634 $349 −$285 (-45%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 72¢ $300 $288 −$12 (-4%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $130 $97 −$33 (-25%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 0–5%? Yes 53¢ 2¢ $1,195 $53 −$1,142 (-96%)
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? No 62¢ 62¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-1%)
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 41¢ 6¢ $288 $41 −$247 (-86%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $42 $41 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $33 $30 −$3 (-8%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $27 $17 −$10 (-37%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+66%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $112 $7 −$105 (-94%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 41¢ 46¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 71¢ 65¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$38 +1843%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Mark Juncosa be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 12 $97 +$37 +38%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 12 $7 $0 -7%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $138 +$37 +27%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $370 +$167 +45%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 11 $913 −$151 -16%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 10 $18 +$89 +500%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $7,984 −$751 -9%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,548 +$274 +18%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $26 −$14 -56%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $1,078 −$94 -9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $1,563 −$362 -23%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $99 −$49 -49%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $1,640 −$480 -29%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $3,972 +$954 +24%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 05 $4,394 −$2,558 -58%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 05 $274 −$69 -25%
Will Karen Bass finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Angele Jun 03 $4,338 +$1,463 +34%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 03 $5,835 −$308 -5%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $112 +$57 +51%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 03 $33 −$29 -87%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 03 $1,416 −$447 -32%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 01 $380 +$132 +35%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $400 +$366 +92%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $33 +$23 +70%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $1,043 +$358 +34%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$112 +37%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,400 +$80 +6%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 +$19 +62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $500 +$95 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $254 +$68 +27%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? May 28 $103 +$2 +2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $26 −$26 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 27 $81 −$19 -23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $200 −$19 -10%
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 23 $3,051 +$906 +30%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the May 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $889 +$246 +28%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $61 −$2 -3%
Will Israel come in 2nd place at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $12 +$287 +2395%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$1,486
other 28% +$5,126
politics 24% −$137
tech 6% −$2,477
economics 3% −$371
culture 2% −$2,285
finance 1% +$445
sports 1% −$291
crypto 1% −$454
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 99¢ $100 34m
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $218 42m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 72¢ $144 2h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 73¢ $219 2h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 3h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 5h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47 BUY Yes 84¢ $42 5h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 75¢ $300 6h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $375 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +65.9% +50.1% 29% 29% -11.1%
≤30d 59 +49.9% +35.6% 39% 34% -9.2%
≤90d 93 +17.0% +5.9% 35% 29% -9.1%
all 368 -10.2% -18.8% 37% 25% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.8% 25% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 17% -18.3%
15% -33.7% 10% -26.2%
20% -40.2% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,695.37 · official $9,695.38 (match) · 3119 history records