Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:36:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7879…1e8e sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-3%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$951
7 days−$966
14 days−$966
30 days−$966
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$891
crypto 15% −$55
other 2% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 50% -51.4%
≤30d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 50% -51.4%
≤90d 20 -8.9% -17.6% 50% 50% -51.4%
all 22 +2.6% -7.1% 50% 50% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 50% -51.1%
10% -16.0% 45% -55.8%
15% -24.1% 36% -60.0%
20% -31.6% 32% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -46% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$102 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage448d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$52 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $103 +$53 +52%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $1,505 −$896 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$14 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$7 +66%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $9 −$1 -13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 +$4 +68%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $70 +$18 +26%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 −$55 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $45 +$10 +22%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $17 +$19 +107%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $16 −$8 -48%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $2 +$6 +284%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $53 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $156 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 49m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 10¢ $3 51m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 10¢ $86 51m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 10¢ $3 51m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 10¢ $1 51m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 11¢ $9 51m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 49¢ $507 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 35¢ $379 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 53¢ $3 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 82¢ $125 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 79¢ $997 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $25 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up $0 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records