Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
78 0x7879…3653 sports 487 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 98d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82,053 (-11%) realized −$81,951 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%252W / 227L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,505per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$1,847est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$10,843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11,039
7 days+$8,255
14 days+$8,255
30 days+$8,255
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$66,949
other 24% +$9,871
world 4% −$25,544
crypto 2% +$2,318
weather 1% −$2,424
culture 0% +$603
politics 0% +$121
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +36.8% +23.8% 88% 88% +16.3%
≤30d 8 +36.8% +23.8% 88% 88% +16.3%
≤90d 322 +2.4% -7.4% 52% 52% -20.5%
all 479 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 52% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 52% -19.8%
10% -17.6% 51% -27.5%
15% ← realistic here -25.6% 48% -34.5%
20% -32.9% 44% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$984 vs −$1,453 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$10,843
Realized−$81,951
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses252 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$1,847
Open positions7
Markets (closed)479 / 487
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$1,505
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $3,947 $3,921 −$26 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 49¢ $2,500 $2,484 −$16 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $2,498 $2,480 −$18 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 54¢ 54¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 34¢ $500 $493 −$7 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 29¢ 28¢ $250 $242 −$8 (-3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 21¢ 20¢ $250 $232 −$18 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 224 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,663 +$1,939 +42%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1,014 +$909 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,486 +$1,478 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,026 +$1,483 +73%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $950 +$571 +60%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9,988 +$2,273 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4,993 +$2,386 +48%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $2,805 −$2,784 -99%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $3,003 −$2,963 -99%
Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Apr 14 $9,999 −$9,930 -99%
Sharks vs. Predators Apr 13 $6,000 −$6,000 -100%
Manchester United FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 13 $2,000 −$1,974 -99%
Manchester United FC leading at halftime? Apr 13 $220 −$217 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $1,500 −$1,484 -99%
Como 1907 vs. FC Internazionale Milano: O/U 4.5 Apr 13 $9,726 +$9,951 +102%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $5,000 +$2,766 +55%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1,000 +$968 +97%
Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 2.5 Apr 12 $10,996 −$10,873 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 12 $2,000 −$1,979 -99%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $455 −$447 -98%
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $1,000 +$467 +47%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-04-12? Apr 12 $3,747 −$3,708 -99%
Spread: Galatasaray SK (-1.5) Apr 12 $250 −$247 -99%
Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 4.5 Apr 12 $250 −$244 -98%
Galatasaray SK vs. Kocaelispor: O/U 3.5 Apr 12 $500 −$491 -98%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5 Apr 04 $1,483 −$1,450 -98%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $6,000 −$5,900 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $2,000 +$1,568 +78%
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $2,000 +$1,915 +96%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to Score Apr 04 $10,000 −$9,908 -99%
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $10,000 −$9,901 -99%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $14,592 −$14,592 -100%
Borussia Mönchengladbach leading at halftime? Apr 04 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 04 $250 −$245 -98%
Melbourne City FC vs. Western Sydney Wanderers FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $500 −$494 -99%
Pacers vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5 Apr 04 $500 +$448 +90%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5 Apr 03 $1,000 +$1,394 +139%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 03 $2,000 +$1,065 +53%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03? Apr 03 $15,000 +$4,397 +29%
Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 237.5 Apr 03 $832 −$820 -98%
Timberwolves vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5 Apr 03 $1,000 −$985 -98%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Apr 03 $2,000 +$831 +42%
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. Anadolu Efes Apr 03 $14 +$7 +52%
BC Dubai vs. Monaco Apr 03 $1,000 +$570 +57%
Paris Basketball vs. Olimpia Milano Apr 03 $1,000 +$1,010 +101%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Panathinaikos Apr 03 $1,000 +$1,026 +103%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 32.5 Apr 02 $2,000 −$1,986 -99%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5 Apr 02 $1,000 −$988 -99%
Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Barcelona Apr 02 $1,000 +$568 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 57¢ $2,914 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $510 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 29¢ $255 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $256 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $2,538 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2,522 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $3,974 1h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,014 12h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $2,486 12h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $4,663 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4,993 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $9,988 21h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 62¢ $950 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $2,026 27h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $2,805 2d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 55¢ $3,003 36d
Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $19 60d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 66¢ $832 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $13 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego BUY Pedro Martinez 65¢ $6 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,843.49 · official $13,777.29 · 3500 history records