trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -24.2% | -31.5% | 50% | 20% | -9.0% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -19.6% | -27.3% | 47% | 12% | -9.8% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -19.6% | -27.3% | 47% | 12% | -9.8% |
| all | 17 | -19.6% | -27.3% | 47% | 12% | -9.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.3% | 12% | -9.8% |
| 10% | -34.2% | 6% | -18.5% |
| 15% | -40.6% | 6% | -26.3% |
| 20% | -46.4% | 6% | -33.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $407 | $408 | +$0 (+0%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 100¢ | 100¢ | $92 | $92 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $21 | $22 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 37¢ | 99¢ | $2 | $5 | +$3 (+166%) |
| Kevin Warsh cuts rates at first Fed meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | No | 75¢ | 72¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? | No | 11¢ | 6¢ | $2 | $1 | −$1 (-48%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 89¢ | 99¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+11%) |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Yes | 66¢ | 1¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-99%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 17 | $16 | +$10 | +61% |
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 17 | $594 | $0 | -0% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? | Jun 16 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? | Jun 16 | $10 | −$3 | -31% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 16 | $100 | $0 | +0% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? | Jun 16 | $3 | $0 | +2% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 16 | $4 | +$1 | +22% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | Jun 16 | $25 | $0 | +2% |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? | Jun 02 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | Jun 01 | $4 | −$3 | -73% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Jun 01 | $141 | −$1 | -1% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $30 | −$7 | -24% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 31 | $416 | +$1 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 25 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 25 | $69 | $0 | +1% |