Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
78 0x7874…d405 politics 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 26L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,006per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$5
14 days−$8
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 93% −$124
economics 4% $0
other 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
all 26 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$955) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$5 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage65d
Avg bet$1,006
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,782 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $834 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $837 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $835 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $836 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $840 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $841 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $845 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $847 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $1,792 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $848 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $851 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $503 −$90 -18%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $941 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,901 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $946 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $778 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $955 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $955 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $1,915 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $960 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $831 1h
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $832 23h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $832 47h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $833 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $833 4d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $834 5d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $834 7d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $835 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $836 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $837 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $834 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $835 15d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $835 16d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $836 18d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 18d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 20d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $838 21d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $840 22d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $840 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $841 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $845 25d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $846 26d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $844 28d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $845 28d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $845 29d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $847 30d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $848 32d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $849 32d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 33d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records