Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:49:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

78
0x7871…e6e4
other · 59 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$5 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses19 / 37
Open positions3
Markets (closed)56 / 59
History coverage468d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 3 History 56 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-22%)
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? No 81¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $45 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $42 +$4 +9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $30 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $85 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Jul 11 $12 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 11 $7 $0 -1%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? Jul 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jul 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 10 $6 $0 -3%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 10 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 09 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 08 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Jul 08 $19 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 07 $46 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $18 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 07 $2 $0 +16%
Will Jaime Dunn win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 06 $18 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times July 4–11? Jul 06 $1 $0 -20%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $108K on July 1? Jul 06 $17 $0 +2%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 26 $17 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? May 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi May 17 $17 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $18 $0 -0%
Will CHEGA win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese legislative elect May 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $17 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? May 09 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? May 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 33% $0
world 31% +$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 9% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 5% +$4
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $2 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $19 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $15 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $9 7h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 64¢ $45 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $13 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $28 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 60¢ $5 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 55¢ $42 14h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $8 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $22 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $30 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 4d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $33 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $33 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $43 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $43 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 5d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 29% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 7 -13.8% -22.0% 29% 0% -9.0%
all 56 -1.3% -10.7% 34% 4% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 4% -9.0%
10% -19.2% 2% -17.7%
15% -27.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -34.2% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.36 · official $40.20 (match) · 172 history records